Jacob Jurg
Winstalarm en fusiegeruchten
Een rommelige start van de dag vandaag met veel bedrijfsnieuws. Waarschuwingen van Philips en Siemens, in fusie- en overnameland wordt gekeken naar een mogelijke fusie tussen de Duitse energiereuzen RWE en E.ON en een alliantie tussen Fiat en Peugeot, de Chinese beurswaakhond wil dat mensen meer in aandelen gaan beleggen, enzovoorts. En er is nog wat macro-nieuws, maar het belangrijkste nieuws van vanochtend komt uit de financiële sector.
Steun ECB werkt
Er zijn wat ogenschijnlijke tegenstrijdige berichten, maar in grote-getallen-land winnen de Centrale Banken en lijkt de situatie wat te verbeteren.
De ECB helpt de banken de winter door:
“ECB Moves Lower Dollar Funding Costs For European Banks."
"The European Central Bank's moves to make it easier for European banks to get dollar funding appear to have worked.
An indicator showing the cost of borrowing dollars by lending euros has tightened to levels last seen in October: the three-month euro dollar cross currency basis swap is quoted at minus 96.5 basis points from minus 114 basis points at the end of 2011, according to ICAP via CQG. The narrowing of the swap is all the more remarkable given that other indicators of stress in Europe's financial system are on the rise.” (bron: Dow Jones, geen link)
Italianen lenen fors bij ECB
Die hulp was nodig ook trouwens:
"ECB WATCH: Italian, Belgian Banks' Borrowing Surges In December"
"The dependence of euro-zone banks on the European Central Bank came under the spotlight again Monday, as new data showed banks in Italy, Belgium and Portugal all leaning more and more heavily on it for support in December.
The data come as no great surprise, after the Eurosystem's overall lending ballooned by a third as a result of the ECB's first-ever offer of three-year credit operation, but confirmed the unpleasant suspicion that the financial crisis is spreading to banks that had ridden out the first two years of the crisis unscathed.
Data from the Bank of Italy showed domestic banks' use of the ECB's credit windows leaped by another EUR 57 billion in December to EUR 210 billion, after rising by EUR 42 billion already in November. That means that over 6% of all Italian banking assets are now being refinanced at the ECB, up from under 1% at the start of 2010."(bron: wsj, geen link)
Terwijl de banken en beleggers bereid zijn te betalen voor zekerheid:
"Germany Auctions Bills With Negative Yield Amid Debt Crisis."
"Germany sold six-month treasury bills at a negative yield for the first time amid demand for the debt securities of Europe’s biggest economy as a haven from the sovereign debt crisis roiling the region.
Franse banken happen toe
Maken sommige banken gretig gebruik van de soepelere regels omtrent onderpand:
"French banks cash in"
"Financial markets paid little attention when the European Central Bank announced in September that from 2012 it would accept a wider range of bank bonds to back cash loans. Perhaps investors should have listened more closely.
It turns out the easier collateral terms may provide a lifeline to French banks – a lifeline being ignored by investors. The ECB quietly increased the list of collateral it would accept by more than a third at the start of the year.
Almost all the 10,599 debt instruments it added were from banks – and more than 8,000 of them from French banks. Furthermore, French banks also dominate the list of newly eligible instruments created since the rules were announced.
This smacks of desperation at the French banks. Already some Irish and Greek banks have run out of eligible collateral and had to turn to their national central banks. If French banks hit the same problem, it would be a disaster.
Yet, the piling up of collateral ought to ease worries about France’s banks being squeezed by a liquidity crunch, as Lorcan Roche Kelly at Trend Macro points out. Far from running out of collateral, the French banks now appear to have an almost unlimited line of credit at the ECB."
Uitgifte aandelen precair
Zolang banken geen nieuwe aandelen hoeven uit te geven, is er weinig aan de hand. Maar de laatste ontwikkelingen bij UniCredit uit Italië tonen aan dat als je wel moet plaatsen, je mag hopen dat je in een land zit waar het short-gaan (speculeren op koersdaling, red) niet verboden is.
Want om te profiteren van een discount (aandelen via een emissie bijkopen onder de marktprijs, red), is een veelgebruikte strategie: short aandelen (inspelen op koersdaling, red), long rights (inspelen op stijging kooprecht nieuwe aandelen, red), waardoor er op gegeven moment een bodem ligt in de korting. In Italië geldt een verbod op short gaan (speculeren op koersdaling, red.) Een tsja, die de aandelenemissie van UniCredit loopt niet echt lekker:
Italy's Once-Mighty UniCredit May Face A Tiny Future
"UniCredit SpA risks becoming the latest high-profile victim of Europe's sovereign debt crisis if it fails to win back market confidence soon, possibly facing a breakup that would see the global ambitions of former Chief Executive Alessandro Profumo in tatters, bankers say.
The Italian bank is already unrecognizable from the major international business Profumo built from a small regional player less than seven years ago. Its market capitalization peaked at above EUR100 billion but now hovers around the EUR 4.5 billion mark.
The shares have lost close to half their value since the middle of last week alone when UniCredit announced a heavily discounted offer price for its EUR7.5 billion rights issue. The decline of the past few days has been so sharp that traders now say the previously cheap offer looks pricey relative to UniCredit's current share price.
One senior investment banker, who declined to be named, said a breakup could soon become an option if the rights issue fails and tensions on the euro continue to increase. This is UniCredit's third plan to boost capital in as many years and one that until recently its executives denied was needed."
Da’s niet al te fijn voor andere banken die willen plaatsen:
UniCredit Plunge Seen Deterring EU Banks From Selling Shares
"A 45 percent drop in UniCredit SpA shares since Italy’s biggest bank announced a rights offer last week may deter European lenders from asking stockholders for help to meet requirements that they replenish capital."
Maar als gezegd: het positieve gevoel door de iets verbeterde markten overheerst vandaag.
Griekenland
Het is maar een kleine economie in Europa, maar omdat het zoveel aandacht heeft gekregen (en omdat er toch aardig wat in gehandeld is), even de laatste updates over de Griekse posities.
Dat er afgeschreven moest worden op de Griekse staatsleningen is duidelijk, alleen wat het gevolg zou zijn voor de Credit Default Swap-afrekeningen (verzekeringen tegen wanbetaling, red.) was nog niet bekend. En verder moet er nog een deal komen natuurlijk. Enfin – dit zijn de relevante news-items:
Greek Bailout in Peril
Germany and France on Monday pressed Greece and its bondholders to agree on a reduction of Athens's debt burden, warning that Greece's bailout loans from the euro zone and the International Monetary Fund are on hold until a deal is reached with private investors.
Holders of Greek Debt To Face Requests For New Concessions
IMF’s Blanchard Says Greek Haircuts ‘Could Have to Be Larger ’
Greece To Introduce Retroactive Collective Action Clauses-Source
"The Greek government will retroactively introduce collective-action clauses (CACs)_ to its existing bonds, a source from the troika of Greece's creditors - the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Union - told Dow Jones Newswires Monday.
According to the troika official, Greece will retrofit the bonds with CACs to gain leverage but will not necessarily use them to bind in bondholders resisting the ongoing restructuring negotiations."
En het meest interessante item over Griekenland van vandaag:
Threat Of Collective Action Clause On Greek Debt Not Enough To Trigger CDS
"Concerns about the predictability of insurance covering Greek sovereign debt resurfaced Monday amid reports that the Greek government may introduce collective action clauses on its existing domestic-law bonds to raise participation in the nation's debt exchange.
The insertion of a collective action clause by itself would not trigger payouts on insurance sold in the form of credit default swaps, or CDS, several derivatives lawyers told Dow Jones Newswires. But the use of the clause likely would trigger CDS contracts for payouts, they added.
Collective action clauses can force a change to bond terms on all holders so long as a minimum percentage of holders, say 75%, agree to a change.
And under credit derivatives market rules, any deal that is "binding on all holders," including holders that voted against the change, would be sufficient to trigger payouts. But putting the clause in place and not using it would not be sufficient to force payouts to CDS buyers, the lawyers said. "It would be a bargaining chip--like a poker bluff," one explained.
"The fact that someone is threatening to use a clause, which if it were used binds all holders, is different to something that constitutes an act." "Just adding the clause doesn't trigger CDS," another lawyer agreed.
News of Greece's consideration of collective action clauses follows months of debate on the reliability of CDS-contracts. Investors have criticized CDS for being an imperfect hedge for sovereign debt because of the range of scenarios that would fail to result in payouts to protection holders. (bron: Dow Jones, geen link)
Als er toch uitgekeerd gaat worden op de Griekse kredietverzekeringen is dat goed nieuws voor de instituten die hun Griekse obligaties hebben afgedekt met die instrumenten. Goed voor het sentiment bij sommige verzekeraars en dus voor het sentiment op de markten.
Jacob Jurg is verbonden aan AFS en verantwoordelijk voor nieuws en research. De informatie in deze column bevat geen individueel beleggingsadvies of aanbeveling tot het doen van bepaalde beleggingen.
