Jacob Jurg
Dunne handel op beurs
Gezien de staat van veel westerse economieën, de onzekerheid over de regelgeving en afschrijvingen voor de bankensector en de op zijn best gemengde resultaten van bedrijven, is het niet verbazingwekkend dat beleggers zich enigszins afzijdig houden. En de verwachting is dat dit nog even aanhoudt kwam vrijdag uit onverdachte hoek:
“Handel op de beurs blijft voorlopig dun"
"Beleggers moeten gaan wennen aan stillere beurzen. NYSE Euronext, eigenaar van de Amsterdamse beurs, gaat ervan uit dat hoge volumes voorlopig niet terugkomen. Weinig volatiliteit, lage rentes en meer handel buiten de beurs om leiden tot lagere volumes op de beurzen van NYSE Euronext. Dat zei topman Duncan Niederauer vrijdag bij de presentatie van de cijfers van het beursbedrijf. Hij gaat ervan uit dat de handelsvolumes voorlopig laag blijven. NYSE Euronext is eigenaar van onder meer de beurzen in Amsterdam, Parijs, Brussel en New York en een derivatenbeurs in Londen.”
Nieuwssnippers
Kort nieuws over de bovengenoemde redenen: de Macro-Economie (we laten Griekenland er even buiten, die soap komt nog wel een paar keer langs de komende weken), een paar willekeurige berichten van vandaag:
“Lew Says Infrastructure Spending Still Needed to Aid Economy"
"White House Chief of Staff Jack Lew said hundreds of billions of dollars in spending for roads and bridges, education and manufacturing are necessary to keep the U.S. economy growing.
“Most Americans understand that a crumbling infrastructure is not the way to build an economy that can last,” Lew, the former White House budget director, said on CNN’s “State of the Union” program.
“We need to make sure we have a manufacturing base in this country” and workers with appropriate skills.”
“Japan Swings to Contraction as Yen Undermines Exports: Economy
Japan’s economy shrank an annualized 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter, more than economists estimated, as slumping exports undermine a recovery from last year’s record earthquake. The contraction compared with the median forecast for a 1.3 percent decline in a Bloomberg News survey of 26 economists.”
“China May Need to Fine-Tune Policy This Quarter, Wen Says
"Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said the nation needs to start “fine-tuning” economic policies this quarter, the first indication of a timeframe for an adjustment he has pledged since October. Economic circumstances in January and the first quarter deserve attention, Wen told business executives last week in Beijing as he sought opinions on a government report, the official Xinhua News Agency reported yesterda:”
“Norway Faces Severe Credit Shock as House Debt Swells, FSA Says
Norway faces “severe” imbalances in its credit and property markets as households continue to amass debt at unsustainable levels, according to the head of the country’s financial regulator. “Growth rates on household debt and house prices are not following a sustainable path,” Morten Baltzersen, Director General of the Financial Supervisory Authority in Oslo, said in an interview.”
Wat betreft die regelgeving:
“Volcker To Push Back On Banks' Trading"
"Paul Volcker is about to fire back at critics of the proposed rule that bears his name. The former Federal Reserve chairman is expected to file a comment letter on the Volcker rule before a Monday deadline, contending that the U.S. financial system will be safer and healthier with a ban on proprietary trading by banks, according to people familiar with the situation.
Mr. Volcker also is likely to resist recent attacks on the Volcker rule from money managers, financial firms and foreign governments, including claims that banning banks from trading with their own money could reduce liquidity in the financial markets”
“French Socialists Want To Shift Risk Away From States, Back Onto Banks
"The French Socialist Party is making plans to shift the cost of financial risk away from the state onto banks and to terminate the implicit guarantees governments have underwritten to make sure lenders wouldn't go bust throughout the financial crisis. In an interview this week, a top advisor to Francois Hollande - the Socialist who is now the front runner in elections set for this spring - detailed the rationale behind one of the candidate's landmark electoral pitches: to split the banks' investment businesses from their retail operations.”
“Europe Trading Tax May Wipe 10% From Stocks Value, HSBC Says
A European-wide financial transaction tax may wipe off as much as 10 percent from equity valuations and offset the benefits to the region’s economy of governments raising money, according to HSBC Holdings Inc. “
En de winstcijfers van bedrijven:
“Earnings Season Gets Better -- Two weeks ago at this time, just 57% of the companies that had reported this earnings season had beaten earnings estimates. As shown below, 61.5% of companies that have reported have now beaten estimates. This is just below the historical average of 62% going back to 1998. While they're still negative, guidance numbers have also gotten slightly better recently. “
Optimisten
Het is niet allemaal doom en gloom, en met een klein beetje verbetering (geen ineenstortende, maar zijwaarts bewegende economie) zien de optimisten kans de bekende riedel van ‘hebben mot je’ luidkeels af te spelen met ‘Been down so long, it looks like up to me’ als argument.
En dan kan je de terugkeer van dit soort covers verwachten:
Dow 15.000 punten per eind volgend jaar. Ruim 17% erop, omdat “If Europe gets its debt crisis under control and the U.S. economy keeps growing, we could easiliy see Dow 15,000 by the end of next year . American companies are in terrific shape, and history strongly suggests that stocks are ready to break to new highs.”
Voor beleggers met een geheugen doet dit verhaal natuurlijk denken aan het Dow 36.000 punten verhaal uit 1999
Natuurlijk komt zo’n een steeds lager bijgestelde voorspelling uiteindelijk uit, maar de argumenten moet je – vanwege de terugkerendheid – met een korreltje zout nemen.
Jacob Jurg is verbonden aan AFS en verantwoordelijk voor nieuws en research. De informatie in deze column bevat geen individueel beleggingsadvies of aanbeveling tot het doen van bepaalde beleggingen.
