Jacob Jurg
Deal or no deal
Het is wederom een dag vol Grieks nieuws. Laten we beginnen met de ‘concrete’ voorstellen over de Griekse noodsteun en de afschrijving op Griekse staatsschuld.
de “Eurogroup Statement on Agreement on Second Greek Bailout “ en de “GREEK FINANCE MINISTRY STATEMENT ON DEBT SWAP LAUNCH “ met de voorwaarden voor de schuldenruil.
Het nieuws hierover is kort samengevat: banken doen grotere afschrijvingen dan eerder aangekondigd, meer toezicht en dwang voor de Grieken, geen melding over de bijdragevan de Europese Centrale Bank. De deelname van de private sector (PSI, Private Sector Involvement) is nog niet afgestemd. Het IMF, Japan en China doen waarschijnlijk mee, maar hoe is nog niet duidelijk.
De Jager streng
Een aantal newsitems: Het was een lange nacht, waarin de Duitse en de Nederlandse Ministers van Financiën wederom zeer streng overkwamen: “The diplomats said Jan Kees de Jager, the Dutch finance minister, and Wolfgang Schäuble, his German counterpart, sent Greek leaders back to bondholder representatives for further cuts at least four times over the course of nearly 14 hours of negotiations.” Uit: “Greek debt nightmare laid bare ”
In dit artikel wordt beschreven wat een drama die zucht naar soberheid en bezuinigen eigenlijk is:
“A “strictly confidential” report on Greece’s debt projections prepared for eurozone finance ministers reveals Athens’ rescue programme is way off track and suggests the Greek government may need another bail-out once a second rescue – set to be agreed on Monday night – runs out.
"The 10-page debt sustainability analysis, distributed to eurozone officials last week but obtained by the Financial Times on Monday night, found that even under the most optimistic scenario, the austerity measures being imposed on Athens risk a recession so deep that Greece will not be able to climb out of the debt hole over the course of a new three-year, €170bn bail-out. It warned that two of the new bail-out’s main principles might be self-defeating.
"Forcing austerity on Greece could cause debt levels to rise by severely weakening the economy while its €200bn debt restructuring could prevent Greece from ever returning to the financial markets by scaring off future private investors.
“Prolonged financial support on appropriate terms by the official sector may be necessary,” the report said. “
Hoewel het duidelijk is dat verder bezuinigen in Europa op dit moment gelijk staat aan ‘pooring water on a drowning man’ (titel van een goed soul nummer van James Carr trouwens) zal het geluid van de Europese Unie toch ‘streng’ blijven vrees ik.
Banken dubben nog
De banken dan – die zijn er nog niet helemaal uit:
“IIF Recommends Members To Consider Debt Deal Carefully - The body representing Greece's private-sector creditors said Tuesday it recommends they "carefully consider" a new deal forcing them to accept a bigger loss on their holdings of Greek bonds.
"The International Institute of Finance said it viewed the deal "as building upon, and being broadly consistent with, the voluntary agreement reached with euro-area authorities and the [International Monetary Fund] in Brussels on October 27, 2011."
It stopped short of any clearer endorsement of the deal, which will force bondholders to waive 53.5% of their principal under a massive debt swap that will cut Greece's outstanding debt stock by EUR107 billion.”
ECB zwijgt
De Europese Centrale Bank hult zich in stilzwijgen:
“Draghi Maintains His Silence on ECB’s Role in Greek Bailout - Mario Draghi exited marathon talks in Brussels today without commenting on the European Central Bank’s role in a bailout for Greece, leaving it for finance chiefs to announce that ECB profits from Greek bond holdings will be funneled back to the debt-strapped nation.
"The ECB will distribute the profits derived from its purchases of Greek bonds to national central banks, who will give the money to their governments to bolster Greece’s aid package, euro-area finance ministers said in a statement. In a new twist, governments also agreed to contribute the equivalent of the profits their national central banks make on Greek bonds in investment portfolios, the ministers said. ECB President Draghi has yet to comment publicly on the ECB’s involvement in the wrangling over Greece[…]”
Toch is de ECB duidelijk in wat het, helaas, nog steeds niet wil:
“ECB's Praet Rejects ECB Acting As Lender Of Last Resort - European Central Bank executive board member Peter Praet Monday rejected calls again for the ECB to act as a lender of last resort to euro-zone sovereign governments to alleviate the burden of the sovereign-debt crisis for the region.”
IMF moet beslissen
Het IMF moet nog beslissen: “IMF To Decide Contribution To 2nd Greek Deal In March - The board of the International Monetary Fund will decide on the size of its contribution to the enhanced bailout deal for Greece "in the second week of March," IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said Tuesday. At a press conference in the small hours after a gruelling 12-hour meeting, Lagarde said that it was premature to speculate on the board's decision.”
Vooral goede bedoelingen
Kortom, wederom een bijeenkomst waarbij veel harde woorden zijn gezegd en uiteindelijk alleen goede bedoelingen en plannen het resultaat zijn.
In de rest van de euro-periferie moet men angstig kijken naar hoe moeizaam dit allemaal blijft gaan, want ook daar zijn de problemen nog lang niet voorbij.
De verwachting in Spanje voor de economie is niet al te best bijvoorbeeld:
“Spanish Lobby Sees 5.7 Million Unemployed, El Economista Says - The Spanish Business Lobby sees the number of unemployed reaching 5.7 million this year as the economy slips into a second recession in four years, El Economista reported. The unemployment rate will likely reach 24 percent and as the economy contracts by about 1.6 percent this year, the newspaper said, citing a report presented to the lobby’s board last week.“ (Bloomberg, geen link)
Niet zo vreemd dus dat het af en toe escaleert: “Spanish civil unrest grows over spending cuts ”
2012: bijna een kopie van 2011…
Jacob Jurg is verbonden aan AFS en verantwoordelijk voor nieuws en research. De informatie in deze column bevat geen individueel beleggingsadvies of aanbeveling tot het doen van bepaalde beleggingen.
